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Director, OpenShift Strategy at Red Hat. Founder of Rishidot Research, a research community focused on services world. His focus is on Platform Services, Infrastructure and the role of Open Source in the services era. Krish has been writing @ CloudAve from its inception and had also been part of GigaOm Pro Analyst Group. The opinions expressed here are his own and are neither representative of his employer, Red Hat, nor CloudAve, nor its sponsors.

5 responses to “Gartner prediction is way too conservative”

  1. Joining Dots

    I agree. I think that adoption will be like many things, an exponential curve with a sudden tipping point. Progress will probably be very slow this year, as people wait for the recession to bottom out. But when take-up starts to grow, it will grow very suddenly and rapidly. Similar to my take on Web 2.0 within business – http://www.joiningdots.net/blog/2008/12/web-20-will-thrive-but-not-yet-while.html

    7 years ago, in 2002, who would have predicted the popularity of the likes of YouTube, Facebook and Flickr…

    And you’re spot on with the openness of the stack. Unless Microsoft starts treating IE like its hardware (you don’t need a MS keyboard to use Windows), their online services will struggle.

  2. dahowlett

    I think we have to be careful not to simply restrict thinking to cloud economics. There are plenty of technical challenges to be overcome that weight equally heavily on the minds of CXOs

  3. Krishnan Subramanian

    I definitely agree about the technological challenges that needs to be overcome. My argument is that cloud economics will be too enticing in this era of economic instability and that could accelerate the adaption, and therefore maturation, of cloud based technologies. Don’t you think the 7 year prediction is way too conservative even with the default evolution rate of enterprises?

  4. David Turner

    Have to agree with you, Ben – Gartner makes the mistake of lumping together the whole SaaS market. In CODA’s experience, the take-up of SaaS in small, medium and large organizations is proceeding at different rates – smaller organizations are generally using SaaS more extensively then larger ones for example.

    Take-up also depends on industry sector, with services, consulting, media and high-tech moving ahead faster than others.

    Gartner’s projections on the time it will take for service-enabled application platforms (SEAP) to evolve is wrong. Cloud-to-cloud linking is already a fundamental requirement for SaaS applications. Right now, CODA 2go on Force.com is fully integrated with Google Apps and Amazon S3. On top of that, we link to other clouds for payments and other add-ons. All of this demonstrates that SEAP platforms are more mature than Gartner gives them credit for.

  5. Software commodification | AccMan

    [..] Gartner prediction is way too conservative(cloudave.com) [..]