The Real Odds of VC-backed Success
I try to give entrepreneurs a realistic view of their chances of startup success. Yet I’ve always relied on anecdote and example, rather than hard numbers. Now I don’t have to. Here is a set of definitive numbers from across the entire industry: “According to the data provided by Sand Hill, since 2003 only 6 […]
The reasonable startup valuation formula
It seems like it’s unfashionable these days for investors to worry about startup valuations. In my opinion, that kind of thinking is likely to lead to disaster for both investors and startups. Far too many people make the mistake of focusing on relative valuation. “This deal is a bargain in comparison to the other deals […]
Y Combinator’s Startup Math
Paul Graham has a great essay out in which he explains his view of both Y Combinator and the startup ecosystem. As usual, it’s a thoughtful essay with a lot of great points. But what I’d like to focus on are the numbers he provided on YC’s portfolio: “Y Combinator has now funded 564 startups […]
Build a profitable business while spending as little as possible (the lesson of Xobni)
It’s not that complicated to build a success startup. Just build a profitable business while spending as little as possible. It’s not complicated, but it’s hard. I recently saw the news that Yahoo! had bought Xobni. Xobni was a noble attempt to tackle the email overload problem (xobni = inbox backwards). According to the stories […]
Silicon Valley: The "Ultimate Meritocracy"
My fellow denizens of Silicon Valley are fond of referring to our happy little ecosystem as the ultimate meritocracy. It’s definitely true that in comparison to the rigid and/or corrupt regimes that prevail in other industries and geographies, Silicon Valley is a meritocracy, but it is far from perfect. I often joke with the female/minority/over-30 […]
Dear Entrepreneur
Like many investors, I was entertained by Andy Dunn’s recent rant, “Dear Dumb VC” His essay lays out his criticism of VCs by citing the following facts: * You don’t realize you are going out of business * You think you can help entrepreneurs * You spend a ton of an entrepreneur’s time before deciding […]
Why I hate acquihires (unless I’m doing the selling)
The always insightful Mark Suster recently tackled the subject of acquihires–the practice of large companies buying small startups simply to acquire their people. Mark lays out an excellent argument for why the acquiring companies are actually losing out when they make acquihires: “You have been at Google, Salesforce.com, Yahoo! for years. You have worked faithfully. […]
Heading into 2013: Thoughts on Ways The Start-Up World is Just So Much Better Now
I came of age in the tech/venture start-up world in the late ’90s. As we go into 2013, I’ve reflected a bit on just how much better things are for founders and entrepreneurs now than they used to be, even just in 2005, when we started EchoSign, let alone the old days of Web 1.0. […]
Making Sense of Color after Meraki, and Going Big
I had a draft post I’d written weeks ago entitled something like “Color: Just an Enormously Large Seed Round Gone Horribly Wrong”, or something like that. Which I guess it was — $41,000,000 to build an iOS app with no revenue that no one ever used. But it wasn’t that interesting, that post/story, so I […]
Unfortunately, We (Probably) Have No Idea If Your SaaS Idea is Any Good
Here’s the thing in SaaS: I appreciate you asking me. But, honestly, generally speaking — I probably have no idea if your pre-launch SaaS idea is any good. So no need even to show me any deck, any static demo, any mock-ups of your product-to-be. Because I have no idea if it’s truly a great […]
The 10x Rule: What Raising $1 of Venture Capital Really Means
Recently, a good friend of mine asked me how much he should raise in his round. He was lucky enough to have a range of options. My simple advice was: assume you have to return a liquidity event (sale or IPO) of at least 10x the amount you raise. Valuations change from round to round. […]
A Lean Greentech Approach
I am a greentech enthusiast and I have been closely following the greentech VC investment landscape. The VCs like Kleiner Perkins who have had a large greentech portfolio including companies such as Bloom Energy are scaling down on greentech investment…
How Do You Know A VC Is Interested?
“He told us he was going to fund us,” shouts the happy entrepreneur into my ear. I’m sure he dialed me as soon as he got into the car. “He’s not going to fund you,” I say calmly, “The VCs always say that. It doesn’t mean anything.” A lot of entrepreneurs have a hard time […]
VC 2006-11: $136 Billion In, $146 Billion Out
There’s a lot of talk recently about a Kaufmann Foundation report on the venture capital industry that states: Over the past decade, public stock markets have outperformed the average venture capital fund and for 15 years, VC funds have failed to return to investors the significant amounts of cash invested, despite high-profile successes, including Google, […]
Entrepreneurs, The Clock is Ticking on Your Career
“You have less time than you think,” I tell entrepreneurs. From the time I was a kid, I’ve been obsessed with age and mortality. Unlike most of my peers, I was convinced that childhood was going to be the best, most carefree years of my life, and I remember thinking at age 11, “Well, at […]
